In a virtual roundtable on ‘Post COVID-19: Future of Electric Vehicles Global and India’ conducted by ETAuto, experts opined that the outlook for EV industry remains positive despite COVID-19 disruption with 30-35% of sales to be electric by 2025 which includes mild hybrid, full hybrids, plug-in, and battery.

    New Delhi: The Indian electric vehicle (EV) market will continue to be largely driven by the two-wheeler and three-wheeler segment, experts opined at the ETAuto Virtual Roundtable on ‘Post Covid-19: Future of Electric Vehicles Global and India’. According to them the EV market will recover swiftly from Covid-19 setback when compared to their ICE counterparts and their outlook remains strong in the medium term.

    As per EV market forecast by Frost and Sullivan, e-rickshaws, e-autos and e-two wheelers are the most promising segments for electrification in India and are expected to account for over four-million units by 2025.

    In the two-wheeler industry, around 15% of the vehicles could be electrified perhaps in the smaller segment, especially below the 100cc segment.Sarwant Singh, Managing Partner – Middle East, Africa and South Asia, Frost & SullivanSarwant Singh, Managing Partner – Middle East, Africa and South Asia, Frost & Sullivan opined, “In the two-wheeler industry, around 15 percent of the vehicles could be electrified perhaps in the smaller segment, especially below the 100cc segment. Additionally, I think e-rickshaws have a good business case.”

    Echoing the same sentiments, Sulajja Firodia Motwani, Founder and CEO of Kinetic Green Energy pointed, “In a vast market like India, where 90 percent of people are commuting by two-wheelers, three-wheelers and buses, the outlook for these sectors remains very strong.”

    Source: Frost & Sullivan

    Sulajja expects electrification of scooters to be faster than motorcycles with almost 30-40 percent of scooters to be electric in the next 7-8 years.

    She noted, “In two-wheeler market where 2.5 million vehicles are sold, whereas 70 percent are motorcycles and 30 percent are scooters. I think the electrification of scooters will be much faster because its urban vehicle motorcycles might take a bit longer because in rural areas, electric will take time due to the charging infrastructure required and mindsets.”

    Terming the electric three-wheeler market to be the lowest hanging fruit that will recover the fastest, Sulajja Firodia asserted, “I expect almost 30-40 percent three-wheelers in the country to be electric in 7-8 years. The electric three-wheelers offer the lowest cost of transportation, with e-commerce delivery coming in and a higher need for last-mile connectivity solution.”

    Electric Cars and Buses adoption to lag

    Lack of long-range EVs, cost of acquisition has been the major restraint for electric passenger car uptake in India. Electric cars have not been a success story in India in the past, but as per Frost & Sullivan, the market will grow but not at the same level as the target set by Niti Aayog in India.

    Sarwant Singh said,” In passenger cars and buses, the uptake will be low till the issue of charging infrastructure is addressed. Until there’s a fast-charging network, it will always be a challenge. The government needs to encourage EV imports with tax benefits or aggressively accelerate “Make In India” to achieve milestone.”

    Meanwhile, Firodia added,” Adoption of electric buses will be driven by the government demand and the government is committed to putting 15-20 thousand buses in the next years.”

    India’s electric story to continue, to be dominated by light mobility post Covid-19
    Source: Frost & Sullivan

    EV Component Industry: An opportunity for India

    Frost & Sullivan sees huge potential for India in the component industry in particular in power electronics with the EV value chain in India expected to reach $4.8 billion in 2025.

    Sarwant Singh highlighted, “There is a huge gap in power electronics in the global scenario. India, particularly, can build these at lower costs and not just power electronics but the whole system, the motor, the batteries.” Around 61% share will be constituted by the two-wheeler segment in the power electronics market in 2025.

    Whereas, in cell manufacturing, batteries and electric motors, the Korean, the Japanese and the Chinese companies are leading. Around 1/3rd of the EV motor market will emerge from demand in EV Buses in India in 2025.

    Source: Frost & Sullivan

    As per Jose Serras-Pereira, Director and Head of EV at Frost & Sullivan UK, Li-ion production will boom in India. He said, “Batteries, power electronics, thermal management and battery management systems will offer significant opportunities to localize and establish a comprehensive supplier ecosystem in India by 2025.”

    As per Frost & Sullivan, India is expected to have 40GWH of installed Li-ion capacity making it one of the fastest-growing industries of the next decade.

    Govt’s role in accelerating electrification

    Experts at the roundtable opined that the government should develop a scrappage scheme and incentivise energy-efficient vehicles with tax breaks and subsidies. The focus needs to be on investment in localized manufacturing across the value chain, skills improvement and building EV Infrastructure in the country boosted by short term incentives.

    As per Sarwant Singh,” There should be a boost in EV Infrastructure including setting up and implementing a fast charging consortium that builds fast-charging network every 50mn on Indian highways.”

    He further added, “The government should try to enable build value chain capabilities from the cell, power electronics, motors and boost localisation through SMEs.”

    There is a need for government-industry partnerships to develop Giga Battery production plans as the EV shift requires huge investments.

    2022-23 to be golden period for global EV industry

    As per Frost and Sullivan, 2022-23 will be the golden period for EVs with the number of launches increasing significantly and battery prices coming down which would provide a very vital impetus to the growth of the global EV industry.

    Source: Frost & Sullivan

    By 2025, 30-35 percent of sales are expected to be electric which includes mild hybrid, full hybrids, plug-in, and battery. In terms of battery electric vehicles, about 10-12 percent of global sales will be fully electric.

    Sarwant Singh said that the mild hybrid systems especially 12Volt systems, 48Volt systems, and 12+12 volt systems could be very attractive options for markets like China and India, especially in the small-to-medium segment.

    Article Source: Auto Economic times

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